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December 11, 2020

Conab Lowers Brazil 2020/21 Soy Production 0.5 mt, Corn 2.4 mt

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their December Crop Report, Conab lowered their estimate of the 2020/21 Brazilian soybean production by 0.5 million tons to 134.4 million and they lowered their estimate of the 2020/21 Brazilian corn production by 2.4 million tons to 102.5 million. They cited adverse weather in southern Brazil as the reason for the lower estimates.

The 2020/21 Brazilian soybean production is now estimated at 134.4 million tons which would represent an increase of 9.6 million tons compared to last year or 7.7%. The soybean acreage is estimated at 37.17 million hectares (91.8 million acres) or 3.3% more than last year. The nationwide soybean yield is estimated at 3,522 kg/ha (52.4 bu/ac), which is 4.2% more than last year. Both the acreage and the yield were reduced slightly in December compared to their November estimate.

The 2020/21 Brazilian corn production is now estimated at 102.5 million tons which would be basically unchanged from last year. Conab is now estimating the full-season corn crop at 24.1 million tons, which is down 2.4 million tons from their November estimate. The reason for the decline were lower yield estimates in southern Brazil caused by dry weather. The full-season corn yield is now estimated at 5,835 kg/ha (92.7 bu/ac) compared to 6,382 kg/ha (101.4 bu/ac) in their November report.

Conab left their 2020/21 safrinha corn estimate unchanged at 76.7 million tons. They continue to use last year's safrinha corn acreage, which is their normal practice. They will issue a new estimate for the safrinha corn acreage in their February Crop Report. The estimate for the third corn crop was also left unchanged at 1.6 million tons. The third corn crop will be planted in northeastern Brazil early next year.